ARLEEN JACOBIUS
Real estate could experience a major earthquake this year when the $400 billion of relatively low-interest-rate U.S. commercial property debt matures and needs to be refinanced in a less hospitable, higher-rate world.
Over the next two years, close to $900 billion of U.S. commercial property loans are set to mature, according to an analysis by MSCI Inc. of commercial mortgage-backed security lenders, collateralized loan obligation lenders and investor-driven lenders, which includes private debt and mortgage real estate investment trusts.
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Been there, done that
“There are a number of owners who are going to find it difficult or cost prohibitive to refinance their properties,” said Sean Burton, Los Angeles-based CEO of multifamily real estate manager Cityview, which has $3.5 billion in assets under management.
“Those who levered up their assets with variable rate debt in order to seek higher returns will also face challenges as their short-term interest rate caps expire and the expected rent growth doesn’t materialize,” Mr. Burton said.
Real estate owners that bought apartment properties at 70% to 80% leverage with floating rate debt and a two-year cap on interest rates are starting to see those caps mature, Mr. Burton said in an email.
This is causing interest costs to far exceed project-level net operating income on multifamily properties, he said.
“This negative leverage (or increased negative leverage) is going to require a capital infusion that not all property owners are able or will want to make, likely resulting in more properties hitting the market from sellers who have more urgency to transact,” Mr. Burton said.
In addition, some real estate managers bought properties with aggressive underwriting assumptions in 2021 and 2022, he said.
“These owners are going to be forced to sell or give (multifamily) assets back to the bank, which will result in more motivated sellers and therefore more transactions,” Mr. Burton said.
This will likely result in some winners and losers in multifamily, but not a long-term fundamental disruption in the sector, he said.
“After all, as long as the population continues to grow, people will still need a place to live,” Mr. Burton said.
Read more: https://www.pionline.com/real-estate/borrowers-could-go-begging-when-refinancing-real-estate